At a glitzy pre-inauguration party for Donald Trump’s second term, crypto insider Tom Trowbridge scanned the room and got a cold dose of reality.
Out of nearly 2,000 guests, only five were from the crypto world. For an industry that had been crowing about the “first crypto president,” the message was clear: its table was all the way at the back.
The lead-up to Trump’s return was a sugar rush for crypto. Promises of friendly regulations, a potential national Bitcoin reserve, and the end of Biden-era obstructions sent Bitcoin to record highs.
Then, three days before the inauguration, came the crypto ball. Trump launched his own memecoin — $TRUMP — in the middle of the soiree. And $MELANIA followed. It was written, one could say.
And it went downhill from there.
By week one, the reality set in: no Bitcoin reserve (yet), a watered-down executive order, and a six-month timeline for crypto legislation instead of the 100 days many had hoped for.
Read more: China’s DeepSeek just dented America’s AI ego — and maybe its lead
AI vs crypto tension
The comparison, or perhaps tension, between AI and crypto has become overt since Trump picked one czar overseeing both sectors and back-to-back executive orders for both to make the US the capital of cutting-edge tech.
Neither sector has clear, overarching laws. While AI’s breakneck evolution has left Congress in the dust, crypto was stuck under an administration unwilling to set the rules.
But Trump understands that “these are the most important technologies of the next decade,” says Chainalysis CEO Jonathon Levin.
This brings us to the real question: what technology will Trump prioritize?
That tension took center stage at the party Trowbridge attended. Tech moguls like Jeff Bezos (now dedicating 95% of his time to AI) and Mark Zuckerberg (who pledged $65 billion for AI) mingled alongside CEOs from the Magnificent 7.
Barely a single crypto leader was in sight.
The numbers tell the story from a different POV: AI’s biggest players are worth $18 trillion combined, while the entire crypto market caps out at $3.6 trillion.
Trump’s $500 billion AI joint venture announced on Day 2 makes it clear where the priorities — and resources — are heading.
Read more: Crypto’s DC moment fizzles as Trump skips Bitcoin in debut speech
The easier win?
Despite being overshadowed, crypto might actually have an edge.
Policy changes for crypto might be easier for Trump to address than AI, argues Martin Auerbach, a former US Department of Justice lawyer.
“It’s different but similar enough to existing paradigms to draw on them,” says Auerbach, now the head of US white-collar defense and investigations at law firm Withersworldwide.
Politicians are familiar with it, and crypto enjoys bipartisan support, having been a major donor in the 2024 election, pumping money to anyone supporting it, not just Trump supporters.
Crypto policy just has a longer history of congressional engagement, says Sep Alavi, general partner at New York City-based technology investment firm White Star Capital.
Read more: Decoding Trump’s move to make crypto a ‘national priority’
A complex quest
AI, on the other hand, is a sprawling challenge.
It’s the bigger fish to fry but it’s a tough one to catch, because it’s so novel that rules will be harder to develop, as its priorities run in multiple directions, explains Auerbach.
From foreign-policy headaches to events like China’s DeepSeek breakthrough, to the technology’s speed of evolution, creating rules for AI is an entirely different beast.
There could be other events: a Black Swan, an unpredictable negative event, or a Gray Rhino, i.e. when risk is evident, but it’s still a surprise.
Trump called China’s DeepSeek AI a “wake-up call,” urging US industries to stay laser-focused on competing.
White Star Capital’s Alavi notes Trump’s priority is protecting critical infrastructure and military systems from AI-enabled threats while limiting China’s access to advanced capabilities.
But figuring out how to outpace China without inadvertently giving it the upper hand remains the challenge.
Read more: Chips are down! What does Nvidia’s $600 billion sell-off tell you?
What next
AI is definitely the bigger fish, with higher stakes and a sense of urgency reflected in Congress’s late 2023 hearings, as Alavi points out.
Hassan Ahmed, Coinbase’s Singapore director, argues that crypto has been in the pipeline longer while AI is still evolving in unpredictable ways.
Trump’s personal stake in crypto — through his own memecoin — and the relative simplicity of regulating the industry make it the easier lift.
Ultimately, the decision may come down to time. With the next election looming in 2026, as Auerbach states, the 47th president has a limited window to make moves.
For now, deregulating both industries may be the most likely outcome. But if crypto gets a head start, it’ll be because it’s the low-hanging fruit — not the juicier prize.
Edited by Ankush Chibber. If you have any tips, ideas or feedback, please get in touch: talk-to-us@moniify.com