Powell’s Christmas gift
The Federal Reserve meets in the next few days, and a 25 basis-point cut is practically a done deal. (A nice little gift before the holidays.) But the real drama will be in Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks. Inflation is on the rise. And no one has forgotten Powell’s November reminder that the economy isn’t screaming “hurry to lower rates.” Don’t expect major fireworks, but a shift in tone could add to whispers about a possible return to rate hikes in 2025. We wrote all about it here. (Dec 18)
Inflation jitters… again
Speaking of inflation… it’s not just the same old “Trump’s policies are inflationary” tune. The risk of a resurgence is actually gaining serious traction, and it’s dominating expert notes from the world’s biggest banks. That means inflation data is about to steal more of the show — and the Fed’s favorite gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, drops this Friday. With inflation creeping higher in recent months, this one’s definitely worth watching. (Dec 20)
Holidays x FedEx
With one of the most extensive distribution networks on the planet, FedEx earnings are basically a global spending barometer. And the early holiday shopping buzz looks promising: Black Friday week saw retail card spending per household up 2% from the same period last year, according to Bank of America. The corresponding spending growth rate for holiday items was 5.3%, BofA said, with a significant shift toward online shopping this year.
But the question is whether this will be enough to offset the demand worries FedEx flagged last quarter? The company’s forecast cut sent its stock plunging 15% back then. This next report could be a make-or-break moment. (Dec 20)
Ready for the Santa rally?
Welcome to the stock market’s favorite season — the year-end and new-year rally that’s been delivering gains for nearly a century. Known as the Santa rally, this stretch from mid-December through early January has historically been a goldmine for investors. But what comes after may warrant caution (especially after that Trump-Cramer moment last Thursday). Read more here.
