1. Jobs day
The US jobs report lands on December 6, and everyone’s waiting to see if the labor market can shake off October’s weak showing.
A Reuters poll forecasts that 183K jobs were added in November, down from September’s surprise 254K gain (October’s 12k was a one-off slowdown). A weak report could push the Federal Reserve closer to that anticipated 25 basis point rate cut on December 18. That’s currently pegged at a 66% probability. A strong jobs report might create grounds for a pause.
2. Cyber Monday
Retailers are bracing for the critical last three months of the year. The holiday season isn’t called the “golden quarter” for no reason. It can account for up to half of annual profits, especially for discretionary sectors like clothes and electronics. Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas… you name it. But this year, sales growth is expected to cool to 3% from 4.7% last year, S&P Global says.
With spending trends under the microscope, we’ll be keeping tabs on how shoppers — and their favorite stocks — perform. Think UPS and FedEx. They’ll be carrying gifts all around the world in the next few weeks. For more on the best stocks and top gifts this season, check out our full story here.
3. The dilemma in Mumbai
To cut or not to cut, that is the question. India’s central bank, the RBI, will convene between December 4 and 6 to decide whether to cut key lending rates… and it’s nothing less than a Shakespearean tragedy. Most indicators point to the need for a cut to keep the economy’s “animal spirits” kicking. But then there’s inflation, which just jumped to 6.21%. The RBI skipped a cut even though the Fed and other central banks went for it last time. What’s on the cards this time?
