Novo shares plunged by over 20% after trial results for its new weight-loss drug, CagriSema, came up short — patients lost 22.7% of their weight, not the expected 25%.
For context? That’s basically Eli Lilly’s Zepbound level, and the market wasn’t impressed. Meanwhile, Lilly basked in the glow, with its stock jumping 8%.
Lilly and Novo are the frontrunners in the booming weight-loss drug market, which is expected to surge to $200 billion by 2031. But competition is heating up fast — at least 16 new players are gearing up to enter the race.
Novo’s miss wiped $100 billion off its market cap — a brutal blow for Europe’s reigning champ, crowned last year thanks to the the OG weight-loss drug Wegovy’s runaway success.
With Wegovy patents expiring in the early 2030s, Novo desperately needs CagriSema to pull its weight (pun intended).
UBS analyst Jo Walton calls the results “meaningfully disappointing” compared to expectations. Walton sees the move as typical when drug trials fall short and has a “neutral” rating for the stock.
Weight-loss drugs have been the hype theme alongside AI over the past two years. But with Novo tripping and Lilly shift into the slow lane, the theme might be running out of steam.
