Sure, Trump could deliver on his crypto promises if elected.
But the odds on him being in a position to do so have just taken a real dive, at least according to betters on the most prominent crypto-based betting site Polymarket.
Punters on the platform have been bullish on a Trump victory in Tuesday’s tightly contested US election, and just five days ago were betting on a 67% likelihood of him becoming the next president. But that figure is now hovering around 57%.
The dip follows a run of good news for Kamala Harris’s campaign, including a new poll in the battleground state of Iowa pointing to a Democratic win there.
That’s something single-issue crypto voters, which have emerged as a distinct voting bloc in this election, won’t love.
One recent online poll by crypto research firm Paradigm claimed the crypto evangelists could be as large as 5% of voters – although as an online survey of 1,000 respondents, you can take that with a fairly large grain of salt.
Whatever their number, it seems crypto-focused voters are most likely to be leaning to Trump, who has been actively trying to paint Harris as an enemy of digital currencies. His reputation as the crypto-friendly candidate rests largely on the ambitious laundry list of promises he’s made – though whether he will actually deliver is another story.
What is Trump promising?
Trump has talked big on crypto and made a bunch of major promises – some more fleshed out than others. They include:
- Sacking the SEC chair Gary Gensler on Day 1 – removing a villain to much of the crypto world.
- Setting up a strategic national bitcoin stockpile for the US government.
- Banning the creation of a central bank digital currency.
- Setting up a panel of popular industry figures to draft US crypto laws within 100 days.
- Supporting the right to self-custody to avoid an FTX-like calamity in which a centralized exchange holds the crypto instead of a private wallet.
- Mining bitcoin within the US.
And in true Trump style, he’s also made big, sweeping pledges. To make America the “crypto capital of the world!” To put an end to “Kamala’s war on crypto” (whatever that is). He’s also hinted that “maybe” he’ll use crypto to pay off America’s $35 trillion debt.
But anyone with a memory of Trump’s first term in office will recall that the big-talking businessman doesn’t always put his money where his mouth is. A PolitiFact analysis of how Trump delivered on promises made during his last time out on the campaign trail in 2016, found that more than half – 53% – were not kept. Only 23% of his promises were delivered and 22% were compromised on.
While Harris has also made efforts to woo the crypto community, her statements have been wishy washy, and she hasn’t exactly promised the world. She’s pledged that:
- Crypto owners will get a regulatory framework.
- The US will stay dominant in blockchain and other emerging technologies.
- Her administration will encourage digital assets while protecting consumers and investors.
Obviously, Harris hasn’t been the commander-in-chief before. But she served as vice-president in a Biden administration that was seen as no great friend to the crypto world.
Whatever either candidate might promise about crypto policy, the reality is that it’s not going to rank as a policy priority over more hot-button issues like immigration, inflation or foreign policy. For anyone looking for their candidate to press a magic button and make their crypto dreams come true – well, don’t bet the farm on it.
