Polymarket users might have nailed key predictions last year, but even they didn’t see a one-two combo coming from regulators in Singapore and the US.
Known for its uncanny prediction accuracy, Polymarket has earned fans like Elon Musk and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
It garnered $3.2 billion in wagers during the last US election cycle, proving its dominance. But now, it’s facing mounting challenges.
Singapore’s stop sign
First, Singapore’s effectively banned it. In Singapore, users who attempt to log in see a notice citing the ban. The crackdown is strict — using VPNs to bypass restrictions could land users in hot water.
The crypto prediction platform is blocked under the country’s strict Gambling Control Act, which carries fines of up to $7,000 and six months in jail for users who defy it. Operators are looking at up to $360,000 in fines and a potential 10-year jail stint.
MONIIFY reached out to the Gambling Regulatory Authority, the Singapore Police Force, and the Infocomm Media Development Authority, Singapore’s internet watchdog, but had not received any responses at the time of publishing.
Singapore’s approach is uniquely strict, punishing not just operators but also users, even those who access unregistered platforms through VPNs, Singapore-based lawyer Oscar Tan tells MONIIFY.
Tan also serves as NFT platform Enjin’s chief legal officer.
Read more: Governments are about to HODL harder than ever
Uncle Sam is snoopin’ around
In the US, Polymarket remains officially inaccessible, though some users skirt restrictions with VPNs. While it has no plans to move onshore, regulators are still circling.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reportedly asking Coinbase for transaction data tied to Polymarket, following a previous $1.4 million fine in 2022 for running an unregistered derivatives platform.
Primarily, the US is digging for more info on whether Polymarket is allowing US citizens to wager on the platform even as Polymarket claims that it doesn’t operate in Uncle Sam’s territory.
You have to note, though, that the CFTC has a complicated history with prediction markets, including losing a case against Kalshi, another major player in this space.
MONIIFY reached out to the CFTC and Coinbase for comments outside of US work hours but has yet to receive a response.
Read more: Betting on Trump: Could Polymarket punters win?
A rocky road ahead
Regulators’ moves haven’t delivered a fatal blow yet.
Singapore, for instance, is likely a small market for Polymarket given its adult population of just about five million. And despite legal battles, platforms like Kalshi are finding ways to operate.
Still, the spotlight is intensifying globally.
Taiwan and France have blocked access to Polymarket. The platform’s terms of service prohibit users from countries such as Bolivia, Venezuela, Iran and more.
With more governments blocking or investigating prediction markets, users and operators could be left wondering if platforms like Polymarket can keep thriving — or if unprecedented regulatory pressure will eventually force them out of the game.
Edited by Ankush Chibber and Amitoj Singh. If you have any tips, ideas or feedback, please get in touch: talk-to-us@moniify.com
