Bitcoin marked its 16th birthday on Friday – but there wasn’t any big birthday blowout.
The OG cryptocurrency kept things remarkably chill as it saw in its sweet 16th, despite a bunch of recent events that would usually be expected to move its price.
BTC rose to nearly $98K on Friday, after hovering around $93K during the New Year parties.
Don’t let the calm fool you. It’s Bitcoin. A cryptocurrency. Anything can happen. Fast. While you’re asleep, or on a 30-minute zoom call.
But its current calm is surprising given the recent potential storms which could have seriously troubled the ship, or proved the wind in its sails.
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The Trump effect
First off, Eric Trump kicked off this week by hanging out with Michael Saylor — the Bitcoin mega-bull — at Mar-a-Lago.
The young Trump’s X post about their “shared passion for Bitcoin” doubled down on President-elect Donald Trump’s promises for crypto once he takes office later this month. The Trumps are big-time Bitcoin boosters: remember, Eric Trump recently flew down to the UAE to say Bitcoin could go to one million.
Yet Eric and Bitcoin’s biggest backer Saylor meet, and BTC stays chill? What’s going on?
The surprises don’t stop there.
Morgan Stanley, one of the world’s largest asset managers, is reportedly considering crypto trading on its online brokerage platform E-Trade. Trump’s crypto-friendly stance is what’s made the wealth giant feel bullish about this move, according to reports.
Still, Bitcoin’s stayed calm.
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Surely though, Do Kwon’s not-guilty plea to charges of fraud and money laundering in a US court would register? After all, he’s the co-founder of defunct blockchain firm Terraform Labs and one of the main players in crypto’s 2022 meltdown.
He finally got extradited to the US from Montenegro after months of South Korea and the US fighting to extradite him to their own territories.
But still, Bitcoin’s hardly budged.
Why so quiet?
One big reason? ETFs. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw its largest-ever outflow at $332 million, according to SoSoValue. Some say it’s portfolio rebalancing; others see it as profit-taking, or a sign that investors are still playing it cautious.
Could BlackRock’s profit-taking be offsetting the bullish events?
There was another “negative” event. Tether’s USDT, the world’s biggest stablecoin, took a 1% hit in market cap last week — the steepest drop since the FTX collapse. Market jitters? Maybe. Or just traders shifting strategies.
And let’s not forget the long-term Bitcoin HODLers. “Old whales” are still cashing in, says Ki Young Ju, CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. But don’t panic — he thinks the selloffs are unlikely to crash the market.
They aren’t. Bitcoin’s relaxing.
Analysts expect Bitcoin to keep chilling through January, with the real action picking up in February (10 days after Trump assumes office).
Singapore-based QCP Capital predicts March could be the real turning point, with traders betting big on Bitcoin hitting $120K-$130K.
Long-term? Optimism’s still alive. QCP says institutional interest is growing — university endowments are even jumping in — and BTC’s evolving to feel more like a stock than a rollercoaster ride.
But the Fed is still the ultimate party crasher, as we’ve mentioned before. Rising Treasury yields and hawkish signals have kept risk assets like Bitcoin in check, and that’s not likely to change overnight.
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The takeaway
So where does Bitcoin go from here? In an appearance on Fox News, Fred Thiel, CEO of Bitcoin miner MARA, had some simple advice.
“My recommendation, to my kids, for example, is they put just a little bit away every month in Bitcoin, forget about it and just watch it grow.”
For now, Bitcoin’s teenage years are looking a little more stable as it matures.
But don’t expect it to stay boring for long. Whether it’s big institutional moves, new policies or whales making waves, 2025 could be just as unpredictable as the last 16 years.
Edited by Amitoj Singh and Tim Hume. If you have any tips, ideas or feedback, please get in touch: talk-to-us@moniify.com
