Election chaos, Fed curveballs, and Buffett’s $$$ moves – there’s lots in store next week!
The election
Election day is Tuesday, and the markets are laser-focused on it. It’s a nail-biter, with Kamala Harris leading the polls while Trump edges out in the betting odds.
For stocks, this means a few more bumps before things (hopefully) smooth out later this year. Historically, well since 1990 at least, the VIX “fear” index tends to hover around 20.7 in election years – just above the 19.4 average for non-election years, according to JP Morgan. Anything over 20? That’s when markets are toying with danger.
But don’t freak out. Volatility usually spikes in October (like clockwork) and cools down once a winner’s declared, bringing back the focus to policy. Either way, some ETFs are primed to move post-election. MONIIFY gathered them all in one place for you here. (November 5)
Fed meeting
The Fed’s back in the spotlight next week and maybe prepare for a plot twist. After September’s 50 basis points rate cut set off what THEN looked like a big rate-cutting spree, a strong jobs report put a spanner in the works, easing those recession worries. The market consensus is that Powell & Co will keep rates steady on Thursday, holding in the 4.5% to 4.75% range. Quite the pivot from early October, when big players like JP Morgan were still calling for another 50-point cut this month. (November 6-7)
Buffett moves
The world’s priciest stock reports on Saturday, but all eyes are on the man behind the curtain, Warren Buffett. Wall Street’s waiting to see what Berkshire’s doing with that record $277 billion cash stash from the second quarter and whether Buffett’s making more moves with his Apple stake after slicing it by 50% last quarter. 💼🔪🍏 (November 2)
